by dionysus on 2010/08/04
I’m pleased bring you this week’s “Outside The Box” newsletter from John Mauldin. For newcomers and regular readers alike, please read John’s introduction, bio, and subscription information here
With grateful thanks to John Mauldin: JohnMauldin@InvestorsInsight.com.
I am in Minnesota this morning doing a speech, but do have a very good candidate for this week’s Outside the Box. Tony Boeckh just published a piece by George Magnus on demographics and the markets that I think is very thought-provoking. Demographics is something I think about a lot and you should too. I will let Tony do the introduction of George.
Have a good week. My goal is to write this Friday’s letter a little early so that I can get in some fishing time. And when you look at today’s ISM number, look past the headline number, which is just fine, and look at the weakness in the leading indicators. New orders declined by 5 points to 53.5, its lowest level since June 2009. Also, imports slowed noticeably, which is a bad omen for domestic demand. Overall, the ISM index suggests that real GDP and factory output slowed early this quarter.
Your concerned about the lack of growth analyst,
John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box
Demographics, Destiny and Asset Markets
As the world economy and financial system struggle to regain their footing, they must contend with a number of problems. One of these is a negative change in demographics. The population is aging rapidly and the proportion of retired to working people is rising sharply. While these are slow moving forces compared to, say, banking crises, they are powerful and inexorable trends that cannot be “fixed”. Rather, we, and governments, must adjust to them and investors must pay attention to the complex investment implications.
This letter contains a special feature on the subject by Contributing Editor, George Magnus, Senior Economic Advisor, UBS Investment Bank. I have had the good fortune to share a platform with George at a prestigious Family Investment conference in Europe for a number of years and I have read his work for much longer. He is an original thinker with a very sharp intellect and a competency that stretches over many areas of economics and finance.
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by dionysus on 2010/08/03
On the heels of Mr. Bernanke’s “non-pronouncement” it would seem that the bond market has some interesting times ahead of it
Big investors are worried about deflation WSJ
The return of Money Fund fees The Bond Buyer
How Quantitative Easing could change market dynamics Seeking Aplpha
Condos that cost less than cars Yahoo Finance (source CNN Money)
Companies storm debt markets Barrons
Money supply confuses deflations already confused proponents Value Expectations
That’s a thought provoking six folks, have a profitable day!
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Linkfest
by dionysus on 2010/08/03
I’m pleased to bring you another edition of Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David R. Kotok. For newcomers and regular readers alike, please head over to Cumberland’s Introduction and Biographies page which can be found here. To sign up for their free newsletter yourself, please point your browser at: http://www.cumber.com/signup.aspx. Now, let’s get right in to this edition:
Three fish tales fit this weekend’s brief writing. The first involves a speech and some magnificent trout.
We are back from the Rocky Mountain Economic Summit held on Friday in Afton, Wyoming. Former St. Louis Fed president Bill Poole, Wells Fargo chief economist John Silvia, and I presented, followed by an interactive discussion with the guests. Investors, CEO’s, and financial-market professionals comprised most of the audience.
A quick summary of the publicly presented views follows: Bill Poole talked about the US fiscal policy and described how the US faces an adjustment that will be difficult. He described our current fiscal path as “unsustainable”. He detailed the size of the imbalance. He argued that tax policy cannot overcome the demands on federal fiscal finances, given the promises that politicians have made. Bill’s remarks were sobering.
Then John Silvia outlined his economic outlook. He sees the economy slowing in the second half of this year. He cautioned about the weight of the “unemployment hole”. John is worried about the politics of the country. He described the difficulties within the various demographic cohorts. He noted how important education is when job seeking. He, too, was sobering.
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by dionysus on 2010/08/02
It’s Monday, which means it must be time for a Monday linkfest!
Why PIMCO likes stocks Bloomberg (long read)
Questions for Mr. Market Barrons
A look at July Asset Class Performance – including – corporate bonds Bespoke
Is the correlation of stocks to other assets breaking down? WSJ
Big banks may come to fear Banksimple Mashable
Is the Fed complacent about disinflationary expectations? Economistsview
That’s six folks. Have a profitable day.
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by dionysus on 2010/08/02
I’m pleased bring you this week’s weekly E-Letter from John Mauldin. For newcomers and regular readers alike, please read John’s introduction, bio, and subscription information here
In this issue:
Are We There Yet?
A Muddle Through Economy
Driving with No Spare
Absent a Policy Mistake
Maine and Turks, Etc.
“… [this economic condition] has been brought about by policies which the majority of economists recommended and even urged governments to pursue.
We have indeed at the moment little cause for pride: as a profession we have made a mess of things.”
- Friedrich August von Hayek, Nobel Speech 2010 1974
Those of us who have taken young children on long road trips to somewhere they wanted to go are familiar with the plaintive question “Are We There Yet?” As a nation and indeed the developed world, it is not unreasonable to be asking “Are We There Yet?” about the road to recovery. The NBER, those self-appointed economists who are the official keepers of the score sheet of recessions and recoveries, have yet to tell us we are out of recession. Yet the economy is growing. Kind of. Today we look at the most recent data on second-quarter US GDP (which came out this morning), and even though it is backward-looking data, we’ll see what we can discern that might help us chart the direction of the future. And then, if there is time, I’ll highlight what is a very serious and growing problem for our state and local governments. There is a lot to cover and so, with no “but firsts,” let’s dive in.
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by dionysus on 2010/08/01
by dionysus on 2010/07/31
With ongoing grateful thanks to the Wall Street Journal for kindly providing such a neat summary, and so – for Saturday July 31st 2010 – here’s what was hot during the past week, and what……wasn’t;
by dionysus on 2010/07/30
The canyon of Wall Street at night. What a lovely image this is…..
by dionysus on 2010/07/29
A delightful picture of Trinity Church, located at Broadway & Wall Street.
by dionysus on 2010/07/29
Another Thursday morning, another coffee time linkfest!
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on the death of paper money Telegraph
(Reflections) The men who ended the Goldman war NYT
Bill Gross: deleveraging in a world fraught with declining world population growth rates CNN/Fortune
Arguments for a second half slowdown Calculated Risk
Thoughts on Equilibrium Analysis Rajiv Sethi
The Belgian Mess Naked Capitalism
That’s six! Have a profitable day everyone!
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