Economatix - Life through the lens of the Capital Markets

From the monthly archives:

June 2008

Friday 13th…..wasn't

by dionysus on 2008/06/13

Being Friday the 13th, no doubt investors were thinking the last trading session of the week could be a big dud. However, traders who had awaited all week for the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index report were happily surprised to see that benchmark had increased 0.6% in May — fast, but in line with expectations. Today also saw a decline in oil prices as the U.S. dollar gained ground against some foreign currencies. That put the lid on a week that showed promise if not for a 200-plus-point drop on Wednesday, precipitated by oil, inflation fears and the continuing saga surrounding financial stocks.

What’s the lesson of these past weeks? An old one, but worth repeating. Everyone knows the story of the three little pigs; The first little pig built his house with straw, only to see the wolf blow it down. The second pig built his house with sticks and suffered the same fate. The third pig took another approach, building his house with bricks. The big bad wolf huffed and puffed, but he couldn’t blow it down.

In these days of a brutal corporate finance environment, cash may well be the equivalent of bricks and morter. Companies generating plenty of cash are in the best position to withstand the huffing and puffing of a slowing economy. A healthy flow of cash, for example, has enabled Johnson & Johnson to boost its dividend 46 years in a row. It has also allowed IBM to buy back billions of dollars’ worth of its own shares year after year. Cash flow has given these companies and a select group of others the ability to invest in their businesses in both good times and bad.

A recent study of nearly 1,000 firms by consultant McKinsey & Co. found that those using cash in hard times for things like acquisitions and advertising, instead of just cutting costs, emerged much stronger from the 1990-91 recession. Indeed, the market valued these aggressive organizations almost 25 percent higher than their weaker rivals (based on the ratio of the stock price to book value). Strong cash flow allows companies to plow their money into “future talent, future technologies and future growth.”

Friday 13th isn’t always bad news for everyone. Ask the board of Johnson & Johnson, IBM, and even a global clothing and footwear company such as VF Corp. All three serve as excellent examples of enlightened management focusing on the core values of prospering in good times, and emerging from bad times even stronger than before.

These are old fashioned lessons, but then again, Friday 13th is an old fashioned superstition. Lessons last, superstitions are destined to die. Dear readers, you decide on which side of the fence you choose to sit.

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If you thought…..

by dionysus on 2008/06/01

The subprime mortgage crisis was bad, but “you ‘aint seen nothing yet”. Wait until the “prime” crisis hits. By the time that’s over, there’s going to be blood on the streets. This will be due at least in part to the following;

a) banks with non-mark to market accounting in use, have not yet revised estimates of their capital to reflect likely future losses. Look out for the quarters in which adjustments are made. Losses against booked asset valuation will be historically enormous.

b) Though house prices will unquestionably level out, and then begin an uptick cycle, that time could be far distant. Before that can happen however, house prices will have to return to a realistic multiple relative to rents, incomes, and prices of common commodities. In the meantime, construction spending will undoubtedly experience a sharp and possibly sustained decline, with commensurate job losses, as that sector undergoes its own messy readjustment.

The consumer credit markets will continue their present violent contractions, leading to dramatic reductions in – for example – automobile financing. Compounded against rising interest rates, and a shrinking supply of internal capital, anticipate that one or more of the “Big Three” US automobile companies to go into default – or worse – fail completely and conceivably file for Chapter 11 protection. At a guess, this writer would tag General Motors as the most likely initial candidate to experience profound distress in their quarterly financial results before Q3. Others may follow. The result of this will almost certainly spike the unemployment numbers for several quarters, as well as having a knock-on effect throughout the supply chain. In itself, such results could contribute to recessionary conditions, even in an otherwise healthy economy. The actual effect on the US economy if/when that happens cannot be known at this point, since the forward indicators paint a gloomy GDP picture.

There are no profound lessons to be drawn from this except one; Prudence has been absent from lenders and investors alike for over a decade. This period is called adjustment, and it is going to be in direct proprtion to the excesses and imprudence which caused it.

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